A UK defence secretary walking out over spending levels turns a long-running NATO numbers debate into a live question about political risk at home. If mainstream governments can’t sell borrowing or tax rises for defence, the 2% of GDP target quietly morphs from a floor into a ceiling, no matter what leaders sign at summits. The under‑noticed risk is that markets and credit ratings start shaping Europe’s defence posture as much as generals and parliaments do. #SecurityPolicy