China’s fastest factory-gate inflation in four years is a warning shot that global goods disinflation may be ending just as central banks are trying to cut rates. Higher producer prices driven by an Iran–Hormuz energy squeeze will hit energy-intensive sectors first (chemicals, metals, heavy industry), then bleed into export prices for everything from machinery to consumer electronics. The second-order risk: Beijing may lean harder on currency weakness and export rebates to offset margin pressure, exporting deflation in goods just as it imports inflation in energy. #Macro